Wednesday, April 30, 2014

The Time of the Seedbearers

Myths, according to the philosopher Sallust, are things that never happened but always are. With a few modifications, the same rule applies to the enduring narratives of every culture, the stories that find a new audience in every generation as long as their parent cultures last.  Stories of that stature don’t need to chronicle events that actually took place to have something profoundly relevant to say, and the heroic quest I used last week to frame a satire on the embarrassingly unheroic behavior of many of industrial civilization’s more privileged inmates is no exception to that rule.

That’s true of hero tales generally, of course. The thegns and ceorls who sat spellbound in an Anglo-Saxon meadhall while a scop chanted the deeds of Beowulf to the sound of a six-stringed lyre didn’t have to face the prospect of wrestling with cannibalistic ogres or battling fire-breathing dragons, and were doubtless well aware of that fact.  If they believed that terrible creatures of a kind no longer found once existed in the legendary past, why, so do we—the difference in our case is merely that we call our monsters “dinosaurs,” and insist that our paleontologist-storytellers be prepared to show us the bones.

The audience in the meadhall never wondered whether Beowulf was a historical figure in the same sense as their own great-grandparents. Since history and legend hadn’t yet separated out in the thinking of the time, Beowulf and those great-grandparents occupied exactly the same status, that of people in the past about whom stories were told. Further than that it was unnecessary to go, since what mattered to them about Beowulf was not whether he lived but how he lived.  The tale’s original audience, it’s worth recalling, got up the next morning to face the challenges of life in dark age Britain, in which defending their community against savage violence was a commonplace event; having the example of Beowulf’s courage and loyalty in mind must have made that harsh reality a little easier to face.

The same point can be made about the hero tale I borrowed and rewrote in last week’s post, Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings. Frodo Baggins was no Beowulf, which was of course exactly the point, since Tolkien was writing for a different audience in a different age.  The experience of being wrenched out of a peaceful community and sent on a long march toward horror and death was one that Tolkien faced as a young man in the First World War, and watched his sons face in the Second. That’s what gave Tolkien’s tale its appeal: his hobbits were ordinary people facing extraordinary challenges, like so many people in the bitter years of the early twentieth century.

The contrast between Beowulf and The Lord of the Rings is precisely that between the beginning and the zenith of a civilization. Beowulf, like his audience, was born into an age of chaos and violence, and there was never any question of what he was supposed to do about it; the only detail that had to be settled was how many of the horrors of his time he would overcome before one of them finally killed him. Frodo Baggins, like his audience, was born into a world that was mostly at peace, but found itself faced with a resurgence of a nightmare that everyone in his community thought had been laid to rest for good. In Frodo’s case, the question of what he was going to do about the crisis of his age was what mattered most—and of course that’s why I was able to stand Tolkien’s narrative on its head last week, by tracing out what would have happened if Frodo’s answer had been different.

Give it a few more centuries, and it’s a safe bet that the stories that matter will be back on Beowulf’s side of the equation, as the process of decline and fall now under way leads into an era of dissolution and rebirth that we might as well call by the time-honored label “dark age.”  For the time being, though, most of us are still on Frodo’s side of things, trying to come to terms with the appalling realization that the world we know is coming apart and it’s up to us to do something about it.

That said, there’s a crucial difference between the situation faced by Frodo Baggins and his friends in Middle-earth, and the situation faced by those of us who have awakened to the crisis of our time here and now. Tolkien was a profoundly conservative thinker and writer, in the full sense of that word.  The plot engine of his works of adult fiction, The Silmarillion just as much as The Lord of the Rings, was always the struggle to hold onto the last scraps of a glorious past, and his powers of evil want to make Middle-earth modern, efficient and up-to-date by annihilating the past and replacing it with a cutting-edge industrial landscape of slagheaps and smokestacks. It’s thus no accident that Saruman’s speech to Gandalf in book two, chapter two of The Fellowship of the Ring is a parody of the modern rhetoric of progress, or that The Return of the King ends with a Luddite revolt against Sharkey’s attempted industrialization of the Shire; Tolkien was a keen and acerbic observer of twentieth-century England, and wove much of his own political thought into his stories.

The victory won by Tolkien’s protagonists in The Lord of the Rings, accordingly, amounted to restoring Middle-Earth as far as possible to the condition it was in before the War of the Ring, with the clock turned back a bit further here and there—for example, the reestablishment of the monarchy in Gondor—and a keen sense of loss surrounding those changes that couldn’t be undone. That was a reasonable goal in Tolkien’s imagined setting, and it’s understandable that so many people want to achieve the same thing here and now:  to preserve some semblance of  industrial civilization in the teeth of the rising spiral of crises that are already beginning to tear it apart.

I can sympathize with their desire. It’s become fashionable in many circles to ignore the achievements of the industrial age and focus purely on its failures, or to fixate on the places where it fell short of the frankly Utopian hopes that clustered around its rise. If the Enlightenment turned out to be far more of a mixed blessing than its more enthusiastic prophets liked to imagine, and if so many achievements of science and technology turned into sources of immense misery once they were whored out in the service of greed and political power, the same can be said of most human things: “If it has passed from the high and the beautiful to darkness and ruin,” Tolkien commented of a not dissimilar trajectory, “that was of old the fate of Arda marred.” Still, the window of opportunity through which modern industrial civilization might have been able to escape its unwelcome destiny has long since slammed shut.

That’s one of the things I meant to suggest in last week’s post by sketching out a Middle-earth already ravaged by the Dark Lord, in which most of the heroes of Tolkien’s trilogy were dead and most of the things they fought to save had already been lost. Even with those changes, though, Tolkien’s narrative no longer fits the crisis of our age as well as it did a few decades back. Our Ring of Power was the fantastic glut of energy we got from fossil fuels; we could have renounced it, as Tolkien’s characters renounced the One Ring, before we’d burnt enough to destabilize the climate and locked ourselves into a set of economic arrangements with no future...but that’s not what happened, of course.

We didn’t make that collective choice when it still could have made a difference:  when peak oil was still decades in the future, anthropogenic climate change hadn’t yet begun to destabilize the planet’s ice sheets and weather patterns, and the variables that define the crisis of our age—depletion rates, CO2 concentrations, global population, and the rest of them—were a good deal less overwhelming than they’ve now become.  As The Limits to Growth pointed out more than four decades ago, any effort to extract industrial civilization from the trap it made for itself had to get under way long before the jaws of that trap began to bite, because the rising economic burden inflicted by the ongoing depletion of nonrenewable resources and the impacts of pollution and ecosystem degradation were eating away at the surplus wealth needed to meet the costs of the transition to sustainability.

That prediction has now become our reality. Grandiose visions of vast renewable-energy buildouts and geoengineering projects on a global scale, of the kind being hawked so ebulliently these days by the  prophets of eternal business as usual, fit awkwardly with the reality that a great many industrial nations can no longer afford to maintain basic infrastructures or to keep large and growing fractions of their populations from sliding into desperate poverty. The choice that I discussed in last week’s post, reduced to its hard economic bones, was whether we were going to put what remained of our stock of fossil fuels and other nonrenewable resources into maintaining our current standard of living for a while longer, or whether we were going to put it into building a livable world for our grandchildren.

The great majority of us chose the first option, and insisting at the top of our lungs that of course we could have both did nothing to keep the second from slipping away into the realm of might-have-beens. The political will to make the changes and accept the sacrifices that would be required to do anything else went missing in action in the 1980s and hasn’t been seen since. That’s the trap that was hidden in the crisis of our age: while the costs of transition were still small enough that we could have met them without major sacrifice, the consequences of inaction were still far enough in the future that most people could pretend they weren’t there; by the time the consequences were hard to ignore, the costs of transition had become too great for most people to accept—and not too long after that, they had become too great to be met at all. .

As a commentary on our current situation, in other words, the story of the heroic quest has passed its pull date. As I noted years ago, insisting that the world must always follow a single narrative is a fertile source of misunderstanding and misery. Consider the popular insistence that the world can grow its way out of problems caused by growth—as though you could treat the consequences of chronic alcoholism by drinking even more heavily! What gives that frankly idiotic claim the appeal it has is that it draws on one of the standard stories of our age, the Horatio Alger story of the person who overcame long odds to make a success of himself. That does happen sometimes, which is why it’s a popular story; the lie creeps in when the claim gets made that this is always what happens. 

When people insist, as so many of them do, that of course we’ll overcome the limits to growth and every other obstacle to our allegedly preordained destiny out there among the stars, all that means is that they have a single story wedged into their imagination so tightly that mere reality can’t shake it loose. The same thing’s true of all the other credos I’ve discussed in recent posts, from “they’ll think of something” through “it’s all somebody else’s fault” right on up to “we’re all going to be extinct soon anyway so it doesn’t matter any more.” Choose any thoughtstopper you like from your randomly generated Peak Oil Denial Bingo card, and behind it lies a single story, repeating itself monotonously over and over in the heads of those who can’t imagine the world unfolding in any other way.

The insistence that it’s not too late, that there must still be time to keep industrial civilization from crashing into ruin if only we all come together to make one great effort, and that there’s any reason to think that we can and will all come together, is another example. The narrative behind that claim has a profound appeal to people nowadays, which is why stories that feature it—again, Tolkien’s trilogy comes to mind—are as popular as they are. It’s deeply consoling to be told that there’s still one last chance to escape the harsh future that’s already taking shape around us. It seems almost cruel to point out that whether a belief appeals to our emotions has no bearing on whether or not it’s true.

The suggestion that I’ve been making since this blog first began eight years ago is that we’re long past the point at which modern industrial civilization might still have been rescued from the consequences of its own mistakes. If that’s the case, it’s no longer useful to put the very limited resources we have left into trying to stop the inevitable, and it’s even less useful to wallow in wishful thinking about how splendid it would be if the few of us who recognize the predicament we’re in were to be joined by enough other people to make a difference. If anything of value is to get through the harsh decades and centuries ahead of us, if anything worth saving is to be rescued from the wreck of our civilization, there’s plenty of work to do, and daydreaming about mass movements that aren’t happening and grand projects we can no longer afford simply wastes what little time we still have left.

That’s why I’ve tried to suggest in previous posts here that it’s time to set aside some of our more familiar stories and try reframing the crisis of our age in less shopworn ways. There are plenty of viable options—plenty, that is, of narratives that talk about what happens when the last hope of rescue has gone whistling down the wind and it’s time to figure out what can be saved in the midst of disaster—but the one that keeps coming back to my mind is one I learned and, ironically, dismissed as uninteresting quite a few decades ago, in the early years of my esoteric studies: the old legend of the fall of Atlantis.

It’s probably necessary to note here that whether Atlantis existed as a historical reality is not the point. While it’s interesting to speculate about whether human societies more advanced than current theory suggests might have flourished in the late Ice Age and then drowned beneath rising seas, those speculations are as irrelevant here as trying to fit Grendel and his mother into the family tree of the Hominidae, say, or discussing how plate tectonics could have produced the improbable mountain ranges of Middle-earth. Whatever else it might or might not have been, Atlantis is a story, one that has a potent presence in our collective imagination. Like Beowulf or The Lord of the Rings, the Atlantis story is about the confrontation with evil, but where Beowulf comes at the beginning of a civilization and Frodo Baggins marks its zenith, the Atlantis story illuminates its end.

Mind you, the version of the story of Atlantis I learned, in common with most of the versions in circulation in occult schools in those days, had three details that you won’t find in Plato’s account, or in most of the rehashes that have been churned out by the rejected-knowledge industry over the last century or so. First, according to that version, Atlantis didn’t sink all at once; rather, there were three inundations separated by long intervals. Second, the sinking of Atlantis wasn’t a natural disaster; it was the direct result of the clueless actions of the Atlanteans, who brought destruction on themselves by their misuse of advanced technology.

The third detail, though, is the one that matters here. According to the mimeographed lessons I studied back in the day, as it became clear that Atlantean technology had the potential to bring about terrifying blowback, the Atlanteans divided into two factions: the Children of the Law of One, who took the warnings seriously and tried to get the rest of Atlantean society to do so, and the Servants of the Dark Face, who dismissed the whole issue—I don’t know for a fact that these latter went around saying “I’m sure the priests of the Sun Temple will think of something,” “orichalcum will always be with us,” “the ice age wasn’t ended by an ice shortage,” and the like, but it seems likely. Those of my readers who haven’t spent the last forty years hiding at the bottom of the sea will know instantly which of these factions spoke for the majority and which was marginalized and derided as a bunch of doomers.

According to the story, when the First Inundation hit and a big chunk of Atlantis ended up permanently beneath the sea, the shock managed to convince a lot of Atlanteans that the Children of the Law of One had a point, and for a while there was an organized effort to stop doing the things that were causing the blowback. As the immediate memories of the Inundation faded, though, people convinced themselves that the flooding had just been one of those things, and went back to their old habits. When the Second Inundation followed and all of Atlantis sank but the two big islands of Ruta and Daitya, though, the same pattern didn’t repeat itself; the Children of the Law of One were marginalized even further, and the Servants of the Dark Face became even more of a majority, because nobody wanted to admit the role their own actions had had in causing the catastrophe. Again, those of my readers who have been paying attention for the last forty years know this story inside and out.

It’s what happened next, though, that matters most. In the years between the Second Inundation and the Third and last one, so the story goes, Atlantis was for all practical purposes a madhouse with the inmates in charge. Everybody knew what was going to happen and nobody wanted to deal with the implications of that knowledge, and the strain expressed itself in orgiastic excess, bizarre belief systems, and a rising spiral of political conflict ending in civil war—anything you care to name, as long as it didn’t address the fact that Atlantis was destroying itself and that nearly all the Atlanteans were enthusiastic participants in the activities driving the destruction. That was when the Children of the Law of One looked at one another and, so to speak, cashed out their accounts at the First National Bank of Atlantis, invested the proceeds in shipping, and sailed off to distant lands to become the seedbearers of the new age of the world.

That’s the story that speaks to me just now—enough so that I’ve more than once considered writing a fantasy novel about the fall of Atlantis as a way of talking about the crisis of our age. Of course that story doesn’t speak to everyone, and the belief systems that insist either that everything is fine or that nothing can be done anyway have no shortage of enthusiasts. If these belief systems turn out to be as delusional as they look, though, what then? The future that very few people are willing to consider or prepare for is the one that history shows us is the common destiny of every other failed civilization:  the long, bitter, ragged road of decline and fall into a dark age, from which future civilizations will eventually be born. If that’s the future ahead of us, as I believe it is, the necessary preparations need to be made now, if the best achievements of our age are to be carried into the future when the time of the seedbearers arrives.

*************************
Even archdruids need to take a break from time to time, and it’s been quite a while since I took time off from these weekly essays. The Archdruid Report will therefore be on hiatus for the next month and a half. I’ll look forward to meeting my readers at The Age of Limits conference in southern Pennsylvania, the Economics, Energy and Environment conference in London, or one of the less peak oil-centric speaking gigs I’ll be having over the same period. In the meantime, I wish my readers good weather for gardening, pleasant days of weatherstripping and caulking, and plenty of spare time to learn the knowledge and skills that will be needed in the future ahead of us; we’ll talk again on June 18th.

269 comments:

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P.M.Lawrence said...

Marcello wrote that "While semiautomatic and automatic weapons are not bleeding edge tech at least some parts will require machine tools, decent grade steel, adequate thermal treatment and so on to get something reliable".

No to the first and even the second, no more than fertiliser requires natural gas as an input, it's just quicker, cheaper and easier that way if you've got it, so it prevails in our time and place. Decent rifles like the Ferguson rifle were made in the 18th century, just with the materials and techniques they had then, so wrought iron is good enough and you don't need machine tools (though getting a skilled toolmaker to make a proper cutting broach would be a great help, he himself wouldn't need full blown machine tools). All semiautomatic and automatic weapons need on top of that are the "lock" part of the triad "lock, stock and barrel", and it is quite practical to make those with similar methods and materials too. For instance, even with loose tolerances it would be straightforward to combine the Heckler & Koch G3 assault rifle's roller actuated delay locking with the magazine and other parts of the Owen submachine gun to get a weapon that worked quite well in field conditions.

P.M.Lawrence said...

First of two parts, replying to Glenn:-

To me that timing says that the Black Death fell within the Hundred Years War, not that they were concurrent.

The way you have described wool just there - as the major export - tells me that we weren't talking about the same thing; what I pointed out was "But the economy was not yet dependent on wool; that came later", which is something else again. Clear up to the Enclosure of the Commons the economy was mostly peasant agriculture (and mostly for subsistence, at that), not specialising in wool as a cash crop for export - whether it was already the main export or not.

However, "At the end of the period, in the mid 15th century, it [wool] had been replaced by exports of finished cloth" is definitely wrong. In the face of various troubles arising from the first phase of the Enclosure of the Commons, Elizabethan policy did various things. One was the Elizabethan Poor Law, to help cope with the plague of vagrants ("able bodied Beggars"), and another was mercantilist: bringing in Flemish weavers to spread their trade and so provide value adding work to the wool business. It was only then, in the late 16th century, that exports of finished cloth became significant (it is not a coincidence that the Lord Speaker in the House of Lords sits on a woolsack as part of the office; Elizabeth I instituted that as a reminder of the source of England's wealth, raw wool). If it had not been so, there would have been much less trouble to begin with.

P.M.Lawrence said...

Second of two parts, replying to Glenn:-

I was also going to bring out the point that Mr. Geronimo made, about archery not developing in similar countries to England, only he beat me to it.

But then you go on to reply to him, "There was a basic difference between English Feudalism and Continental Feudalism, at least as practiced by the heirs of Charlemagne. The French nobles of the time said straight out that they would never trust a peasant with such a powerful weapon as the longbow. They were afraid of being shot in the back, and the English nobility weren't... In post William England, the nobles were Normans, descended from Scandinavians who had been converted to Nicean Christianity and learned to speak French and fight on horseback. The commoners were Anglo-Saxons, descended from Scandinavians who had been converted to Nicean Christianity and whose society was evolving from an egalitarian Germanic society to a more feudal one at the time of the Conquest. Culturally, the two classes had more in common."

Um, no, to both parts of that, as follows:-

- There wasn't any culturally distinct English nobility until after the unsettling it received from the Black Death (consolidated by the effects of the Wars of the Roses). When the Hundred Years War started, it was still an alien, French (and French speaking) ruling class.

- It was actually already a French ruling class when it was installed after the Norman Conquest, both because the Normans had gone native by then and because (perhaps surprisingly) around half the incomers weren't Norman anyway but other continental adventurers (oddly enough, there was a higher proportion of Normans among the knights who moved on to Scotland and Ireland - or perhaps they were just less diluted later). After Stephen, even the kings weren't Norman. Over the generations, more continental adventurers kept coming, e.g. Simon De Montfort in the 13th century and Piers Gaveston in the early 14th century; we can take the latter as marking the beginning of lack of acceptance of the French among the English nobility, though that may have been because of, ah, personal issues. Certainly Simon De Montfort was so accepted that he could lead a revolt by the English nobility.

- The commoners in England were not Anglo-Saxons descended from Scandinavians. They were Anglo-Saxons descended from people from around Frisia (which then extended from what is now Holland into Jutland), and a comparatively few people descended from Scandinavians who were not Anglo-Saxons and whose ancestors had survived the Wasting of the North after the Norman Conquest - Yorkshiremen, Geordies, and the like. That sort of cultural connection between the ancestors of the knights and the commoners was probably stronger in lowland Scotland, and near a few of the former Viking cities in Ireland.

Anyway, it strikes me that a diktat from the top is a far more likely explanation for English archers when there were nothing like as many in other countries, particularly since the nobility's being against it was far more to do with them being jealous of their hunting privileges than with them not trusting the peasantry with weapons.

Zosima said...

SLClaire said...

“ I'm not sure how old you were at the time, if you recall Reagan's presidency or not. He seemed to be perceived as a kind of father/grandfather figure who was, with his Morning in America slogan, reassuring people that everything's OK now, we're back to normal. People had been pretty shook up when the oil crises happened. It was the first rattle to the religion of progress. People didn't take it well, and I think they heaved a sigh of relief when Reagan soothed them by telling them it's over, go back to your shopping and enjoy yourself.”

Yes I was there, this is the way I remember it. “Morning in America” was a slogan from Reagan's 1984 campaign commercials. It meant to convey the fact the the country had entered an economic recovery after a very deep recession. It’s hard to imagine a president running for reelection who wouldn’t try to give people the impression that he was responsible for better times. People were already shopping because that’s what people do in an economic recovery. They didn’t wait for a command from Reagan to do so. The same was true for conserving energy, there was no command from Reagan telling them to stop conserving. It had been known for decades that Reagan didn’t care about the environment or saving energy, so I don’t why people who did would stop caring about those things because of him. No laws were passed preventing people from continuing to conserve if they wished to do so. People didn’t continue to conserve because their heating bills were dropping, and so was the price of gasoline. It was those tangible economic realities that were reassuring and soothing to people, Reagan was just echoing economic reality.

The task that you and JMG have in order to continue your blame game, is to come up with a realistic way that a typical citizen could have changed that reality all by herself. Until you can, you have no case. Under those circumstances it's a delusion to think that large amounts of fossil fuels could ever have been set aside for future generations through the trivial individual choices you made. The same is true for today. Such a monumental task would require all of society’s individuals and institutions working together. That’s not happening now, so how realistic is it to expect that it should have happened in the 1980’s.

Glenn said...

P.M. Lawrence,

I bow to your knowledge of the wool trade. However, I was concerned with the demographic shifts during the 100 Years War, rather than the 16th century, by which time, yes the population had recovered from the plague and grown yet further. I still don't see how you differentiate between the Black Death being "within" rather than "concurrent" with the 100 Years War. Yes, the Plague was about 30% shorter than the war, starting near it's beginning and petering out a generation before the end. Seems close enough to me, but I suppose it's as good a distinction for you as the word "obsession" was for me.

Yes, I was quite aware that Scandinavia normally refers to the peninsula on which Norway and Sweden are located, and that Anglo Saxons migrated from Frisia and Jutland. However, the Normans were primarily descended from Danish vikings, many from Jutland, though Rollo's (Duke Robert I) origins are contested. My point was that the cultures of Anglo Saxon England, which had frequent contacts with Normandy and which was evolving towards Feudalism, and Normandy were much closer at the time of William's conquest than the separate cultures of the military and civilian components of the Western Roman Empire when it collapsed and began to evolve into what became Feudal France.

"Anyway, it strikes me that a diktat from the top is a far more likely explanation for English archers when there were nothing like as many in other countries, particularly since the nobility's being against it was far more to do with them being jealous of their hunting privileges than with them not trusting the peasantry with weapons."

Actually, no; French nobility of the period said in contemporary documents that they did not trust their peasants with such a weapon. If your thesis is correct, the laws to encourage archery by the French kings should have been more effective. That they were not, I attribute to resistance to enforcement by local nobility.

Here, I believe, we disagree as a matter of opinion. You seem to be saying that English peasants refrained from hunting with the longbow for three centuries due to anti poaching laws, then took up the bow as a weapon of war as a result of laws requiring practice.

I think this flies in the face of human nature. You could be right, but I think the historic record supports my view better. I say this because the numbers and population percentage of English Bowmen never recovered after the 100 Years War; despite additional laws requiring archery practice aimed at the (now free) class of townsmen. If the laws were as effective as you are saying, the demographic shift from country to town (and I don't think you and I disagree that this happened) should have meant the numbers of Archers would have recovered after the plague along with the rest of the population. They did not, and a whole series of stricter laws were enacted by subsequent monarchs with little effect.

My conclusion is that the prospect of bringing a poached deer to the table is a more effective incentive to a countryman than mandated practice is to a townsman. As a note, the laws required a minimum range of 220 yards (1/8 Mile!) with a "wand" the diameter of a man's wrist as the target. No saying how often it was actually hit though.

The other reason I think legal motivation aimed at war was ineffective is the very high mortality rates due to disease, malnutrition, hypothermia and infection among the peasant class infantry. Everyone knew the odds; regardless of your skill as an archer you were more likely to die than live once you were in the army.

In any case, the relevance to this forum is what is likely to happen in the future. One would hope an examination of history would help. But, as our disagreement demonstrates, even when faced with the same facts and course of events, it is possible to come to very different conclusions about cause.

Glenn

in the Bramblepatch
Marrowstone Island
Salish Sea
Cascadia

dltrammel said...

Being a lover of history the discussion about the Black Death, long bows and wool are amazing, thanks everyone, I'm learning more and more here.

Claire, I would have to side with Zorina and say that the fact oil got very cheap after the Embargo probably had alot to do with the fence sitting middle that were shocked into conservation abandoning it to go back to the advertising industry fueled consumer binge afterwards.

With several decades post WW2 of telling the public that it was our manifest destiny to own it all (ala the American Dream), learning the right lesson of the big pothole of Embargo wasn't something I think the American public could have done.

Some did. Now that we're faced with a road full of potholes lets hope that the Public is more inclined to see the future.

---

BTW everyone, even if you haven't registered with us on the GW forum, please check out the "My Tips For Living Frugal" post there. Its free to view. Some great suggestions coming in from everyone.

If you should want to join us and post your own suggestion, feel free to email me at my new GW email of dtrammel at green wizards dot info.

Which will enter you into the pool to win one of 4 free JMG books we are giving away when he returns in June to posting.

P.M.Lawrence said...

First of three parts, replying to Glenn:-

For me being concurrent (literally, running with) is symmetrical and implies that whenever either side is happening, so is the other. That makes the Black Death and the Hundred Years War not concurrent, because so much of the latter happened without the former.

"My point was that the cultures of Anglo Saxon England, which had frequent contacts with Normandy and which was evolving towards Feudalism, and Normandy were much closer at the time of William's conquest than the separate cultures of the military and civilian components of the Western Roman Empire when it collapsed and began to evolve into what became Feudal France".

I think I see what you are getting at there, and it is accurate if I understand you correctly, but what you have written is not actually a correct historical description. The separate cultures of the military and civilian components of the Western Roman Empire when it collapsed were actually far closer still, consisting of Late Romans and those barbarians who had been next to the frontier for two centuries and had actually developed close connections as Foederati etc. But those did not begin "to evolve into what became Feudal France" at all; that came from the Franks, who were a group further removed from the frontier and who came in as a later wave. Those Franks were indeed culturally more separated from the post-Romans, with one important exception that came later and made a lot of difference to history. The Franks took up the same sort of Catholic Christianity as the post-Romans, unlike the otherwise more assimilated and earlier barbarian invaders, who were mostly Arians. So your point is accurate about the Franks, who weren't sidelined by history, just not about "the separate cultures of the military and civilian components of the Western Roman Empire when it collapsed"; the Franks weren't in on that.

"If your thesis is correct, the laws to encourage archery by the French kings should have been more effective".

No, because they neither had enough time to operate nor (in the face of current warfare) enough opportunity. Don't forget that even English archers didn't make enough difference until the Hundred Years War; earlier, at Bannockburn, other tactics prevailed.

P.M.Lawrence said...

Second of three parts, replying to Glenn:-

The timeline seems to have roughly like this:-

- From the Norman Conquest of Ireland to Edward I's reign, there was raiding etc. on the Welsh Marches and a continuing effort to secure the coastal route along South Wales to Milford Have, which allowed a shorter and safer passage to Ireland (valuable in the days of dangerous sea travel - think White Ship). It would have been even easier to travel from Anglesey like the modern ferries, but that was a pacification step too far.

- The English gained some knowledge of Welsh archery from all this, but even by the time of Simon de Montfort's rebellion in Henry III's reign (mid 13th century), a rebellion against which the future Edward I fought, archery seems not to have been much used.

- Edward I conquered Wales and turned his attention to Scotland (late 13th and early 14th centuries). There was peace within England itself, and so no serious disruption. This seems to have been when English archery started coming in.

- By Edward III's reign (mid 14th century) English archery was well enough established to be material in wars in France.

So I'm not "saying that English peasants refrained from hunting with the longbow for three centuries due to anti poaching laws, then took up the bow as a weapon of war as a result of laws requiring practice", I'm saying that for two centuries too many of them refrained to allow a critical mass to form until the law was changed to require it, and that this was a result of a self-policing system of privileges preventing poaching, i.e. nobles out hunting, and maybe a few licensed verderers, would catch enough poachers to thin them out (just read up about what the future Edward I and a few of his friends did to a peasant they simply found on the road!). The privileges system provided self-policing throughout, since everybody had some privileges (though some were more valuable than others). Nobles could hunt, but on the other hand commoners had rights to graze livestock on the commons, which others couldn't do. Why risk being spotted using someone else's privileges, when you can get some meat through your own privileges and might lose those if you were caught?

P.M.Lawrence said...

Third of three parts, replying to Glenn:-

"If the laws were as effective as you are saying, the demographic shift from country to town (and I don't think you and I disagree that this happened) should have meant the numbers of Archers would have recovered after the plague along with the rest of the population".

No. I thought I already covered this; peasants settled in villages were under a system that had lots of self-policing. Townies, like vagrants, were more lost to scrutiny (what some modern researchers call "legibility").

Oh, and it wasn't a "demographic shift from country to town", it was simply a demographic shift from the country; some of those did indeed find places in towns, but once a peace dividend from the Wars of the Roses arrived there were many leaving the villages unwillingly who were thrown into vagrancy (this is a key aspect of Tudor history).

"The other reason I think legal motivation aimed at war was ineffective is the very high mortality rates due to disease, malnutrition, hypothermia and infection among the peasant class infantry. Everyone knew the odds; regardless of your skill as an archer you were more likely to die than live once you were in the army."

Do you see where you've taken your eye off the ball? You're conflating several different things:-

- It wasn't a law requiring people to become infantry that was at work, it was a law requiring peaceful villagers to learn archery.

- When trained archers did join up, for many of them it was plain ignorance of what was involved as all they had ever seen were swaggering soldiers loaded with loot (see the beginning of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's The White Company for a word picture of this); they didn't know about survivor bias, and no, not "Everyone knew the odds". But the villagers surely did know the far worse fate that awaited them if they failed to follow their lord to war, at best escape into outlawry (with worse living conditions and threats from enemies than in war) and at worst the High Justice.

"But, as our disagreement demonstrates, even when faced with the same facts and course of events, it is possible to come to very different conclusions about cause".

Strange ... I've been taking it as a case of "it ain't what you don't know that will hurt you, it's what you do know that ain't so"; you have been working with a different set of "facts and course of events" to mine. I've been trying to lead you to the same basis of fact and analytical tools as mine (while carefully keeping an eye out for the off chance that I will find out something I didn't know). I'm doing this partly for the truth's own sake, but also because, as you point out, that same basis is going to be the one people have when looking into how the present turns into the future. (I've been keeping an eye out for specifics when people talk about "feudal" or "feudalism" around here, because it's surprising how often they are only thinking of what the French Revolutionaries were condemning in a blanket way; it's rather like the misunderstanding of "Fascist" or "Fascism" that our host has been bringing out. So far, I haven't seen that common error.)

By the way, you might be interested to know that a few years ago I did some fact checking and proof reading for Professor Geoffrey Blainey's History of the World - see the credits. (That's not an argument from authority; you yourself should still check everything I tell you, or I won't get that service from you myself.)

Cherokee Organics said...

Hi Zosima,

It was never about conservation, it was actually about kicking the can down the road.

If only you knew your history better...

I'll try and give you a straight forward no BS answer.

For Reagan, the 1982 mid-term congressional elections saw the Democrats gain 26 house seats.

Why would this be the case? It was because to tackle the stagflation - more so than the unemployment issue, which in itself is an interesting thing - in the US, the Reagan administration responded by introducing budget cuts. His popularity fell to 35% which was the lowest for a president since Watergate.

After that election - possibly fearing for his job - the Reagan administration introduced: deficit spending; lower interest rates; and tax cuts.

Those 3 policies combined can be approximated to a spend today and worry about the bill tomorrow mindset.

You are quite correct in your supposition that it was not about conservation. That thought probably never crossed the average punters mind. It appears to me that it was about pushing today's costs into the future. Conservation is still an option. It always is.

The consequences of accepting conservation as an option are a lower standard of living.

The problem is that those strategies have been recycled for a rinse and repeat situation to this day, so the future costs just keep getting bigger. It has many parallels to the problem of pollution.

Quote: "The task that you and JMG have in order to continue your blame game, is to come up with a realistic way that a typical citizen could have changed that reality all by herself. Until you can, you have no case."

Dude, I respect your thoughts, but the farm here has shown me first hand that if you stop for a while, use far less finite resources and convert your actual resources into a long term flow, many costs and bills can disappear. Literally.

I strongly urge you to have a think before replying. I have been told that occasionally I have a waspish tongue.

Regards

Chris

Marcello said...

"Decent rifles like the Ferguson rifle were made in the 18th century, just with the materials and techniques they had then, so wrought iron is good enough"

The Ferguson was a lot simpler weapon any modern semi or full auto and still making the screw plug with the required tulerances was beyond the ability of contemporary production technology to turn out in more than limited quantities.
That said you can certainly with enough effort cobble together semi or full auto action that kinda, sorta works even with substandard materials and tulerances.
It just won't be reliable.
Shoot one of those Khyber pass weapons with standard ammunition and see how it plays out.I won't be standing behind you, that's for sure...

Shane Wilson said...

Few short notes,
Does anyone know when the GW forum is moving to the new site? Been kinda waiting for it to move to post, as Cathy said it had been dead due to spambots.
Secondly, I'm very new to Peak Oil, sustainability, green, etc. circles, and have been focusing on putting tentative feelers out in my own community (KY). I've been focusing strictly on my own area (local) for many reasons: can't afford to travel far by car (am poor by American standards), this is the community where I live, so it should be my priority, and personal reasons (need for community/interpersonal connections) I'm not sure how ideologically riven green circles can be, or just how controversial JMG is considered to be (I know he gets a fair share of trollery he deletes on here) I was starting messages stating my awareness of Peak Oil, wanting to make changes thanks to JMG, but I wondered if that would rub people wrong if that had a different ideological bent that they couldn't set aside. Of course, I could be reading too much into it, as flaking and blowing people off/nonresponse is par for the course nowadays.

Redneck Girl said...

Zosima said...
'Yes I was there, this is the way I remember it. “Morning in America” was a slogan from Reagan's 1984 campaign commercials. It meant to convey the fact the the country had entered an economic recovery after a very deep recession. It’s hard to imagine a president running for reelection who wouldn’t try to give people the impression that he was responsible for better times. People were already shopping because that’s what people do in an economic recovery. They didn’t wait for a command from Reagan to do so. The same was true for conserving energy, there was no command from Reagan telling them to stop conserving. It had been known for decades that Reagan didn’t care about the environment or saving energy, so I don’t why people who did would stop caring about those things because of him. No laws were passed preventing people from continuing to conserve if they wished to do so. People didn’t continue to conserve because their heating bills were dropping, and so was the price of gasoline. It was those tangible economic realities that were reassuring and soothing to people, Reagan was just echoing economic reality.

The task that you and JMG have in order to continue your blame game, is to come up with a realistic way that a typical citizen could have changed that reality all by herself. Until you can, you have no case. Under those circumstances it's a delusion to think that large amounts of fossil fuels could ever have been set aside for future generations through the trivial individual choices you made. The same is true for today. Such a monumental task would require all of society’s individuals and institutions working together. That’s not happening now, so how realistic is it to expect that it should have happened in the 1980’s.'


I hated Reagan, I was a junior high kid in California when he was governor and I knew what an empty, senile suit he was.

The public would have conserved with a charismatic political leader as a willing example to brace against the financial tide. However since even then so many political representatives were chasing the patronage of the super wealthy and corporations over and above the people they purported to represent, it didn't happen. What did happen was examples set by such people who ignored the obvious limits and pretended that 'they'll think of something' while scoffing at anyone 'foolish enough' to deliberately restrict the public life style. They wanted financial zombies and they got them. Fantasy triumphed over obvious reality.

With a de industrialized economy few working class families have the money to become more self sufficient without stiff hardship due to their learning curve. Especially since so many of them have no or low paying jobs to begin with.

I've always wanted land, (I think its genetic), but for one reason or another I haven't gotten it. If I buy this property I'm looking at I'll be planting a garden as soon as I can get out on it. I've already got a pygmy nanny so I'll breed her again and hopefully get another nanny and alternate breeding each to keep a good supply of milk. There will also be a small chicken flock for fresh eggs and I'm thinking of a pit green house using old sliding glass doors for the roof to grow fruit trees that wouldn't survive the winters here as well as out of season berries too. I might even be tempted to grow some tropical vegetables with long maturation periods. I'd rather spend essentially worthless paper on paying off the land then buying a lot of toys and gadgets. The dollar is losing value and land, livestock and the skills that accompany them are more valuable than a stock portfolio, IMO.

BTW, in a moribund economy such as we're headed into I'd use a gun for defensive purposes and a bow for hunting. I'm a little woman and I'd rather not advertise that I've had hunter's luck to anyone who might think to make their life easier by taking what I've gotten.


Wadulisi

streamfortyseven said...

All this talk about semi-auto or full-auto weapons being possible to make in a machine shop is very interesting, but it leaves out one critical component - ammunition. Cartridge cases can be reloaded and reused a number of times, but eventually metal fatigue sets in, and with luck you notice the case deformation before you load a hot load in it, and blow the action right off your rifle. To reload cartridge ammunition - popularly known as 'bullets':
1. You have to have a punch to extract the spent primers, a tool to convert Berdan primer holes to Boxer if using military surplus ammo (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centerfire_ammunition), and then you've got to have a source of primers or know how to recycle them (http://castboolits.gunloads.com/archive/index.php/t-137802.html)
2. You have to have a bullet mold for the calibre of rifle you're using, a means of melting and pouring lead, and be able to cut and file the sprue from the casting process off the bullet. We're talking about just lead here, not FMJ or BTHP.
3. And you need to have an accurate scale to measure powder - and then you need gunpowder - and know about the different kinds and their characteristics.

OK, now you have the components, so I'm going to refer you to this page for the rest of the process:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kHgzkWoS64

The point here is that you'll want to conserve ammo, not be Rambo and shoot it all downrange. Someday, cartridge ammo may be worth its weight in gold...

Glenn said...

P.M. Lawrence,

You've exposed me to a lot I didn't know before, at least considerably more detail of a period I'm familiar with in more broad outline. Though I don't think the Tudor period terribly relevant, being a good bit after the end of the Hundred Years war. I am curious, since many of the later laws requiring archery practice were aimed at townsmen, at least as late as Henry VIII, why the decline in numbers of archers available after the Hundred Years War? You don't seem to agree with my thesis that it was because townsmen didn't have the poaching opportunities their country cousins did; yet they never produced the numbers of archers that the rural areas did before the Hundred Years War. If, as you say, it was more difficult to monitor compliance in a city than in the villages; why didn't any of the kings figure that out and deal with it between say 1450 and 1550?

Thanks for fitting the Franks in, I hadn't realized they weren't Foederati. Kills my Arianism hypothesis though. Still, wouldn't the majority of French peasants have been descended from Gauls defeated and disarmed by Caesar's legions? I'd think after 1300 years more or less as peasants and serfs their relations with the nobility might be a bit different than that of Saxons, only having a couple of hundred years of servitude. Differences between the Jacqueries in France and the Peasant's Revolts in England, from the same proximate causes strike me. While both were violent, the brutal excesses of the Jacqueries indicates much stronger feeling of hostility between the classes in France and England.

In short, the French nobles were worried about being fragged by the peasants, the English nobles weren't

Glenn

in the Bramblepatch
Marrowstone Island
Salish Sea
Cascadia

Glenn said...

P.M. Lawrence,

I think I posted my last by accident before proofreading. Apologies. Anyway, yes I've read Doyle's "The White Company". I enjoyed it, but took it more as English jingoism than history. It probably did stimulate my childhood interest in archery though. Trying to learn the Mongolian thumb draw right now, my aging fingers aren't up to the three finger Mediterranean grip anymore. Still haven't figured out which side of the bow works best either, different modern Mongols seem to use different sides depending on personal preference.

Glenn

in the Bramblepatch
Marrowstone Island
Salish Sea
Cascadia

Cherokee Organics said...

Hi dtrammel,

How's it goin?

Quote: "Claire, I would have to side with Zorina and say that the fact oil got very cheap after the Embargo probably had alot to do with the fence sitting middle that were shocked into conservation abandoning it to go back to the advertising industry fueled consumer binge afterwards."

Look dude, sorry to burst your bubble, but you've scored a history lesson...

You are correct in the short term and also incorrect in the long term.

I'm not sure whether you remember the term Reaganomics? It was much lauded at the time as it was all about influencing the supply side of the economic equation.

What am I talking about, you ask? Well in order to break the effectiveness of the Oil Embargo during the 70’s, the US government strove to increase the supply of Oil to consumers.

Increasing the supply of Oil drove down the price as you quite correctly point out. It also undermined the need for conservation efforts.

At the same time the economic policies introduced increased the short term purchasing power of the US dollar making imports cheaper.

It was a double whammy, domestic Oil production improved and imported fuel (as well as other manufactured imports) became cheaper on the back of a stronger US dollar.

So, short term you are correct. However, the long term story is this:

Currently, my understanding is that the US imports half of all its Oil requirements.

Think about that for a minute. Half of every tank of fuel you put into your vehicle comes from an overseas source.

Ask yourself honestly: Is there any feasible way that the US could possibly produce all of the Oil it consumes? There are several options available to achieve this and none of them are business as usual.

The other economic policies are nearing their end game too. Let's have a look at how they are going:

- deficit spending. Well Federal government debt in the US is now at approximately 100% of GDP. I have read in the past - and please correct me if I am wrong, that above 90% is indicative of a failed state;

- lower interest rates. Your official interest rates are at or near zero. This is an indicator that in the real world where services are provided and goods are made and sold there is very little opportunity for a positive return on investment. Should you be worried, yes; and

- tax cuts. As your Federal government spends more every year than it receives in income (ie. taxes), it is feeding the above deficit problem.

Now, remember about that pesky imported Oil stuff which is about half of the amount you use everyday?

Well, it just so happens that the US is asking the rest of the world to accept US dollars to pay for that imported stuff. Meanwhile, the average US consumer and government is doing their very best to reduce the value of that dollar. The other strong nations who would like to get access to that Oil which the US currently imports are doing their very best to assist the US in its act of self-imploding.

They don't have to even go to the expense of fielding an army. All they have to do is keep extending credit to the US, developing alternative markets (and client states), accepted currencies and squirrelling away resources - all of which is happening right now.

I have genuinely warm feelings towards the US and its people and am not excited about other countries taking over its role.

My gut feeling is that at some point in the future, the supply of imported Oil to the US will be slowly strangled as sooner or later another country will call you out on your economic bluff game.

So ask yourself again, is conservation an option?

Regards

Chris

P.M.Lawrence said...

Marcello replied to me, "The Ferguson was a lot simpler weapon any modern semi or full auto and still making the screw plug with the required tulerances was beyond the ability of contemporary production technology to turn out in more than limited quantities. That said you can certainly with enough effort cobble together semi or full auto action that kinda, sorta works even with substandard materials and tulerances. It just won't be reliable. Shoot one of those Khyber pass weapons with standard ammunition and see how it plays out."

I think you missed several points I made in previous comments:-

- I wasn't suggesting the Ferguson as a solution, though its existence shows that local production of enough of that kind of rifle for local needs is quite practical. Rather, I used it as an example to show that rifles do not need special steels and machining for their barrels after all, though those do help a lot.

- The Khyber Pass copies of assault rifles etc. prove that perfectly good ones can be made with limited resources like that, since some have been made. Yes, some shoddy ones have been made too, but as I pointed out, that relates to what the locals want. When they want good ones, those can be had.

- "you can certainly with enough effort cobble together semi or full auto action that kinda, sorta works even with substandard materials and tulerances [sic]" is of course just precisely what Kalashnikov was after and got - only, with rather better "works". I suggested a slightly different approach based on other experience that was built up while working with limited resources (the Heckler & Koch G3's action was originally developed for a machine gun by a firm outside the armaments industry, and the Owen gun magazine and sealing system was developed similarly and with a view to field conditions).

When you put that together, it looks very likely indeed that a very limited industrial base could produce enough such weapons for local needs. Whether it could produce enough decent ammunition is another matter, as Streamfortyseven pointed out, but that wasn't the bottleneck I was addressing just there; I was only dealing with the difficulty claimed for the weapons themselves.

P.M.Lawrence said...

First of two parts, replying to Glenn:-

"Though I don't think the Tudor period terribly relevant, being a good bit after the end of the Hundred Years war".

It wouldn't be, only you thought various things were underway or complete during the Hundred Years War. By pointing you at Tudor developments, I showed you both that they started later and that they went in somewhat different directions from what you thought. For instance, the Tudor period was when the wool trade became a big deal and when a lot of people were first driven off the land (and they didn't simply all go to the towns, but rather a lot of them just fell through the cracks).

"I am curious, since many of the later laws requiring archery practice were aimed at townsmen, at least as late as Henry VIII, why the decline in numbers of archers available after the Hundred Years War? You don't seem to agree with my thesis that it was because townsmen didn't have the poaching opportunities their country cousins did; yet they never produced the numbers of archers that the rural areas did before the Hundred Years War. If, as you say, it was more difficult to monitor compliance in a city than in the villages; why didn't any of the kings figure that out and deal with it between say 1450 and 1550?"

First off, the towns weren't vast conurbations, so townies had just as many poaching opportunities anyway, a short walk away (I've somewhere seen a report of a stag being brought to bay in Fulham in the late 18th century, two hours walk from the City of London proper, though it was noteworthy by then).

Second, of course the kings figured out that it was harder to handle people in towns (or as vagrants, don't forget). But you should remember that their resources and tools for dealing with that were limited - that's why it was an issue of "legibility". The kings could only try to keep people from voluntarily or involuntarily leaving village life, but since they could only work through local magnates who had vested interests the other way, their success was limited. (In case you're interested, totalitarians have figured out ways of handling townspeople since then, basically street and building committees using rationing control to control residents and perks to reward the committee members.)

P.M.Lawrence said...

Second of two parts, replying to Glenn:-

"Still, wouldn't the majority of French peasants have been descended from Gauls defeated and disarmed by Caesar's legions? I'd think after 1300 years more or less as peasants and serfs their relations with the nobility might be a bit different than that of Saxons, only having a couple of hundred years of servitude."

Probably - only, the years of the English remembering an old order were just precisely the ones in which they were more restive. They started coming round when Henry I used them to defeat his brother, Robert, Duke of Normandy, at Tinchebrai. Still, it was probably only the wars of Stephen and Matilda (when "God and his saints slept") that made them grateful for a strong king rather than endemic robber barons. It seems to take around three generations - a long lifetime - for cultural change to work through after its physical conditions get locked in.

"Differences between the Jacqueries in France and the Peasant's Revolts in England, from the same proximate causes strike me. While both were violent, the brutal excesses of the Jacqueries indicates much stronger feeling of hostility between the classes in France and England."

But they weren't the same proximate causes, were they? In France, the defeats of Crecy and Poitiers led to a change of both strategy and tactics, that were followed up by an English response. The French used their castles and tried to avoid open battle, leading to incremental siege campaigns, and the English used havoc to try to draw them out. That means, they stole what they could and burned, killed or otherwise laid waste to anything they couldn't, leading long raids into nearly all parts of France to do it. The French nobility were indeed drawn out at Poitiers, but after that they grinned and bore it - because the worst was happening to the peasants, not to them.

So the French peasantry grew alienated from the nobility that they thought (correctly) had abandoned them to suffer and to die, so their own revolts took place in that context. In England, on the other hand, the young Richard II could go out and give assurances to revolting peasants which were accepted and didn't lead to him simply being scragged; he was held in respect and he tried to live up to that, with limited success (Henry VIII used a similar approach to the Pilgrimage of Grace, only he dealt with that at arm's length and visited dire retribution on it and its leaders).

As I recall, Mongolian archery used a special ring as part of the release process. But it's been a long time since I read about it in Montgomery's book on the history of warfare.

Andy Brown said...

Shane,
Some posting is at greenwizards.info now rather than .org. As far as I can see the forums are still going though.

It would be great if D Trammel or one of the others working on Greenwizards could give us an update. Would JMG allow a Wednesday guest post along those lines?

Shane Wilson said...

Recollections of late 70s-early 80s politics:
The debate between Carter's vision and Reagan's vision was whether the U.S. would continue or increase fossil fuel use, thereby relying more and more on imported supplies, since the U.S. had already hit its hubbert's peak. Roughly, Carter's view was that the U.S. would basically follow its hubbert's curve downward, depending primarily on domestic sources and eschewing imports. At that time, the lion's share of the world's oil was in the volatile middle east. The corresponding foreign policy was to stand down from empire. Reagan's policy was basically a dramatic expansion of the military and imperialism in the oil producing middle east, and an increase in growth fueled by imported oil (that basically continued through at least the 2nd Iraq war) Carter's view was seen as patriotic and stabilizing because it did not involve spending vast sums on military imperialism in unstable, volatile, unsupportive countries. Also, it was seen as forward thinking, in an age when limits to growth and finite fossil fuel resources were taken as a given, learning to conserve and use appropriate tech was seen as positioning the U.S. well for a future without fossil fuels. Reagan's whole shtick was that our very lifestyle and the American dream depended on growth and energy use, so that Carter's vision and conservation was basically a threat to our very way of life. So, yes the election of 1980 was definitive, tho the effects took a while in coming. Gas prices actually skyrocketed in' 82, hitting an all time high, and the recession of' 82 was particularly severe, so people were still conserving while Reagan's energy policies took a while to take effect. But we've basically kept the Faustian bargain we struck in' 80,never looking back

Marcello said...

"The Khyber Pass copies of assault rifles etc. prove that perfectly good ones can be made with limited resources like that, since some have been made. Yes, some shoddy ones have been made too, but as I pointed out, that relates to what the locals want. When they want good ones, those can be had."

Thing is how are the good ones actually made?
Because if the following pics are any indication I would not be surprised if they had at least the most essential parts machined from semi-passable steel.

http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2012/07/30/gunsmithing-in-pakistan/

"of course just precisely what Kalashnikov was after and got - only, with rather better "works"."

Kalashnikov design still assumed steel and machine tools. Could they be duplicated with wrought iron and basic smith tools? Perhaps, items like wheelocks, to say nothing of some 16th century breechloaders out there would suggest you can accomplish quite a bit without modern tech/materials. Still I would have a lot of reservations about their reliability under duress.

"When you put that together, it looks very likely indeed that a very limited industrial base could produce enough such weapons for local needs."

It depends on what ou mean by "limited" and "industrial". If you have enough industrial tools to make ammunition probably some to make at least the most essential parts should be available as well, in which case there should be no difficulties.

dltrammel said...

Andy said:

"Some posting is at greenwizards.info now rather than .org. As far as I can see the forums are still going though. It would be great if D Trammel or one of the others working on Green wizards could give us an update. Would JMG allow a Wednesday guest post along those lines?"

We intend to eventually have a 5013C non-profit to hand the entire Green Wizard project but Real life has a way of making you do other things, so its taking a bit.

Currently between JMG and myself we own the dot com, dot org, dot info and dot net.

The forum currently sits on the dot org url but will be moved to a sub domain of the dot info site eventually. The info site has a wordpress blog on it and is intended as the gateway to the concepts of Green Wizardry. The forum being where we can all discuss and chat about things.

Eventually i hope we can write enough tutorials and articles that will be posted to the dot info site so a new person can read up enough to get a basic understanding of the beginnings of Green Wizardry, THEN visit the forum to start their personal journey and path.

LOL, so its all a bit chaotic at the moment.

Glenn said...

Part 1

P.M. Lawrence

"Do you see where you've taken your eye off the ball? You're conflating several different things:-

"- It wasn't a law requiring people to become infantry that was at work, it was a law requiring peaceful villagers to learn archery."

My eye is firmly on the ball. My conflation is quite deliberate. The sole purpose of the archery laws was to provide a body of trained men to call upon in time of war. No other purpose. The fact that not everyone who practiced at the butts was drafted didn't change that.

"- When trained archers did join up, for many of them it was plain ignorance of what was involved as all they had ever seen were swaggering soldiers loaded with loot (see the beginning of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's The White Company for a word picture of this); they didn't know about survivor bias, and no, not "Everyone knew the odds"."

The villagers, at any rate, had access to the magnitude of the hazards of war, though townsmen might not. In a village of 200 people you can know everyone by name, and probably half of them pretty well. If a dozen men march off to war one fine spring day and only two or three return the next winter, everyone knows. In a town, it's easier to remain ignorant of the size of the risk.

"English archers didn't make enough difference until the Hundred Years War; earlier, at Bannockburn, other tactics
prevailed."

Not a good example to advance your cause. English archers were quite effective earlier at Falkirk. The failures at Stirling Bridge and Bannockburn, despite large numbers of archers available seem due to the commander's haste, or inadequate knowledge of their strengths and weakness and the right tactics to use them. Even after they got it right a few times, Patay showed what happens to unsupported archers. One could chalk this up to an uneven learning curve on the part of the English commanders. I would say it was a combination of luck, the crude state of military intelligence in the Middle Ages and the competence or lack thereof of individual commanders. Edward I for instance, pulled the fat out of the fire at Falkirk by over-riding his commanders and using the archers to soften up the schiltroons.

"Proximate cause" was probably the wrong phrase for me to use. I was thinking of the general economic situation post Black Death which bit English and French peasant just as hard. You are quite right, the French peasant's grievances were worse. Still, your example of Richard II illustrates a profound difference in class relations between the two countries. English peasants _usually_ had a better deal than their French peers. There is nothing in English history to compare with say, the French Revolution.

Glenn

in the Bramblepatch
Marrowstone Island
Salish Sea
Cascadia

Glenn said...

Part 2

If I follow you (I hope I have, I have learned much from you.), the English kings were impressed by the Welsh bowmen they encountered in their campaigns there, and Richard de Clare's (Strongbow) conquests in Ireland. They decided to encourage the latent native archery in England by various statutes, and by the 14th century had large enough numbers of archers for them to be effective in military campaigns. The losses incurred in the Hundred Years War and Black Death were not made up, in part because of the drop in rural population who were easily controlled at the village level; and the difficulties of controlling and recruiting townsmen, including opposing behaviour by local magistrates and officials who profited thereby.

I think the traditions of archery were much less latent than you; but I certainly will not disagree with the chain of events, with which you are so intimately familiar. I will use an ecologic approach here for my take on events.

From at least the time of the Danelaw, Archery was a living tradition in all forested areas of England, Wales and Scotland. It was enabled by a culture and economy that made it a usefull skill. After the conquest it was reduced more in appearance than fact by strict game laws which benefited the aristocracy. At the beginning of the Hundred Years War, and before the Plague, there were large numbers of archers available to English kings to use in campaigns. Between the war deaths of the archers themselves, and the reduction in rural peasant population in England by the plague, the breeding and cultural populations for archers fell below replacement levels. The resulting reduced population helped push the economic changes (common in most of Europe subject to the plague) from an in kind economy of direct goods and services to a more monetized economy. When the population started to recover, the previous cultural and economic environment no longer existed. Those peasants who could, chose the towns, and more relative freedom in part because of the demands of a monetized economy and the lack of money making opportunities in rural areas. Thus, despite new laws and statutes, the numbers and proportions of archers never recovered.

I know about thumb rings. I use a leather tab, which works well. The tricky part is learning the new coordination to hold the nock in place. Shoving it up against a nock ring on the string works, but I need more practice. Snap on nocks work, but reduce the power available a bit. The thumb release tends to deflect the string the opposite way from the Mediterranean release, so I was thinking of releasing the arrow off the right side of the bow rather than the left. Our range area needs to be cleared of brush, and I have too many other spring projects to get to it now.

Glenn

in the Bramblepatch
Marrowstone Island
Salish Sea
Cascadia

thrig said...

"Currently, my understanding is that the US imports half of all its Oil requirements."

Somewhere between 22% by some quick webbing on 2010 numbers or 36% per quotes by energy economist Philip Verleger; it was apparently much higher (60%) a decade ago. Still! A quick nixing of something like six million barrels a day of imported consumption would be a recession, and various frowning politicians would doubtless promise to get growth back on track should such a drop happen overnight.

The long-term trend indicates less consumption since 2005, though that still depends on imports, and is likely a complicated combination of factors including higher energy prices, boomer retirement, a generational shift away from driving (besides the high fuel prices, more interest in urban areas for living, perhaps attachment to the Internet and other devices instead of the car), modest fleet fuel economy improvements (though the U.S. still greatly lags other nations, and its manufactured environment does not help), and fallout from the most recent recession.

Another fun fact! "US strategic reserves equal 696 million barrels"—guess how many days those reserves would last at present levels of consumption in America? How much would Americans have to give up to stretch those reserves out to a year?

SLClaire said...

Re people making a choice in the 1980s to let go of conservation: yes, I continue to argue that it was a choice. What they thought they were choosing, and why, is a separate issue. Sometimes people do things for reasons they aren't fully conscious of, or don't want to admit to themselves. I think this is one of those cases. JMG's discussion of the religion of progress and how that affects what he calls the crawlspace of our minds is relevant here.

Before I get into that (and thank you Cherokee Chris as I think you've made most of the argument already), allow me to use a current example where large numbers of people have been and are making a choice very much against the will of the various levels of government, in the face of far more severe personal consequences to themselves than practicing conservation would entail. That example is the use of marijuana.

With a few notable exceptions and for many years government at all levels has been dead set against the possession, production, and sale of marijuana. Serious amounts of jail time and/or fines await anyone convicted of such activities, especially after multiple convictions. Because so many workplaces do drug testing and marijuana's metabolites are retained in the body for many days and are easily detectable, using the drug makes obtaining many, probably most, jobs difficult or impossible. If you are arguing that governmental power will force people to act in certain ways, the logical deduction would be that marijuana use in the US would be quite rare, that most people would choose not to use it. Anyone who lives in the US knows this is not the case. Peoples' choices in this case are clear to themselves and to those in power: they want to use the stuff no matter what, so they do.

When making a choice would go against the religion of progress, as choosing to conserve did after Reagan's election (particularly after the 1984 election), things are a good deal murkier. The conflict between values we claim to hold and the values we actually act from have much to do with what happened. In this case, even though powerful governmental and corporate forces acted in a way to reduce the price of oil, it *still* paid people to conserve, even on a personal and selfish level. Buying a small gas-conserving car cost less than a big energy hog, both in the cost of the car and in the cost of gasoline. It didn't save as much money as it had earlier, but it still saved enough to be significant to individuals and families. Yet people chose not to do that - and yes, that was a choice they made. No one forced them to act against their own economic interest. So why did they do that? JMG's religion of progress series explains why: people felt much more comfortable to act in concert with their most deeply held values, which in this case meant acting from a belief that energy would be endlessly available in whatever form was needed. To act from a value of conservation forced confronting the value of no limits. This is the sense that I mean that people made a choice in the 1980s to stop conserving. They hadn't enjoyed conserving in the 1970s because it meant confronting their value of limitless growth. When values conflict with behavior, people need to change their behavior or change their values. Many people found it much easier to change their behavior than to deal with a value that they didn't quite realize they were operating from.

somesentientbeing said...

Off topic, but what do you make of Germany's renewable energy sector?

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/13/3436923/germany-energy-records/

I'd have to consider this story misleading, seeing as renewables are only sustainably producing a much smaller fraction than 74%. The key word in the story being "surge".

Brian Weber said...

I think this desire you describe is a like the feeling most people have at some point of getting sick of themselves and wanting to be someone else. We take the good things about our current world as normal and only see what's bad. So what is good? Maybe dentistry, plumbing, general literacy/education, a life that is not continual hard labor followed by a violent or miserable death. If we "reset" as you say, these things would vanish as well. Can they be saved in any case? Maybe not. But wanting them gone (because one wanys present civilization gone), seems funny to me. This is why I'm not at all sanguine about the future facing us. Unlike some posters here, I don't see any kind of cleansing in the future. I see a future of increased violence, decreased literacy and health, and a terrific plunging of society toward irrationality that will make today's world look sane. When did the aftermath of any civilization's fall yield a world that was more peaceful, sane, enlightened, or benevolent?

sgage said...

@thrig,

"Somewhere between 22% by some quick webbing on 2010 numbers or 36% per quotes by energy economist Philip Verleger; it was apparently much higher (60%) a decade ago."

It's very close to 50% according to the Energy Information Administration (eia.gov). We will probably produce a touch more than we import by later in the year, but we do not produce anywhere near 78% nor even 64% of our petroleum.

Redneck Girl said...

Brian Weber said...
I think this desire you describe is a like the feeling most people have at some point of getting sick of themselves and wanting to be someone else. We take the good things about our current world as normal and only see what's bad. So what is good? Maybe dentistry, plumbing, general literacy/education, a life that is not continual hard labor followed by a violent or miserable death. If we "reset" as you say, these things would vanish as well. Can they be saved in any case? Maybe not. But wanting them gone (because one wanys present civilization gone), seems funny to me. This is why I'm not at all sanguine about the future facing us. Unlike some posters here, I don't see any kind of cleansing in the future. I see a future of increased violence, decreased literacy and health, and a terrific plunging of society toward irrationality that will make today's world look sane. When did the aftermath of any civilization's fall yield a world that was more peaceful, sane, enlightened, or benevolent?


JMG doesn't think the world is going to be sane, enlightened nor benevolent, at least not for awhile. When has it ever been for any length of time? What you are describing is a dark age which JMG does expect to a degree.

Its pretty hard to change human nature even when we are willing to change. 'WE' do need to learn from our mistakes this time around and pass stronger traditions and land use ethics down to our children. Literally write them in stone! (Echoes of the Ten Commandments anyone?)

Specifics of what would be 'good' to pass down? The ancient Egyptians had a form of dentistry, the ancient Minoans had plumbing, both were reserved for the rich or royalty. Education is a loose and slippery term in regard to what's useful to know. Does the average farmer today have any reason to know mathematics above what's needed to farm? Literacy depends to a great degree on the level of the cultural development of a people. It would be nice to keep literacy but how useful would it be for people to survive the coming troubles when so much will be done without machinery past wind, water and muscle.

If you are a new reader you'll not yet have read JMG's blogs on repositories of knowledge like monasteries. Not being a Christian I'm hoping there won't be a religion involved that edits knowledge as not useful if it doesn't support a hierarchy.

Wadulisi

AGL said...

I thought this program might be of interest. Certainly rang my bell. http://www.ttbook.org/book/survival-0

Each story is fine on its own. But WRT this post I enjoyed the interview with Lewis Dartnell. http://the-knowledge.org/en-gb/

Hope you're enjoying your break from the blog. Looking forward to your return.

Myriad said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
nr-cole said...

somesentientbeing asked about the energiewende, including the recent cheerleading about them supplying 74% at peak load.

Economically, the program is a bust because it simply can't pay for itself. The enormous subsidies required are putting the German government in quite a bind:
http://notrickszone.com/2014/04/27/angela-merkels-vice-chancellor-stuns-declares-germanys-energiewende-to-be-on-the-verge-of-failure/

These are just rumblings of the hard truth. You can't replace the fossil fuel needs of a society with fields of PV and wind turbines. The math doesn't add up.

Spain is getting a lesson in the same thing. I don't recall the exact numbers, but their solar program required the government to pay something like 5-10 times the price compared to fossil fuels for the energy that came out, and they're broke.

onething said...

I'm going to try to catch up on the commentary..I've been so busy with outside projects and my garden, as well as a decision to go to bed early that I have gone days without so much as checking my email.

I had been disagreeing that the American public made any sort of informed decision regarding energy back in the 80's. I'm actually about 5 years older than JMG. I got curious and asked my ex-husband and sister what they remember. Turns out, very little.
N says "I remember your brother Paul, talking about limits on available sources. I had read more than a few books on that. In fact we even had arguments on the topic, and I remember saying that there is more oil than meets the eye."

My sister's response was -
"The grassroots support for environmental protection, for peace, for nuclear disarmament, for empowering women and people of color, for international justice, did NOT “go away in the 1980’s.” They were rendered powerless and removed from most media coverage by a circling of wagons, by a deliberate and concerted and successful effort on the part of the elite to marginalize all opposition. COINTELPRO was effective against activists but had been ongoing long before that; but the startup of all these “think tanks” which push a conservative, pro-corporate message and are heavily quoted by the media, began then. I also think elements of the elite wanted environmental protection in the early 70’s and that’s why it happened—the movement may have helped, but if the elite had been as determined to prevent those Acts in the early 70s as they are now, likely none would have passed.

Wonder if JMG has seen the recent study showing that statistically, what the elite wants it generally gets while what the public wants according to polls has almost no effect on what legislation passes--therefore, stories about this usually have the word “oligarchy” in the title. But maybe we don’t want what we tell pollsters we want—there was a great cartoon, posted for years at the soy dairy, in which a politician faces a crowd bearing signs saying, “Poison our water!” “Cut our wages!” “We want another war” “higher CEO pay” “More clearcuts” etc etc. The caption was “The people have spoken”.

Yes, there was SOME shift in public attitudes around 1980, but it was minor compared to the change in policy starting rather sharply right then.

This assumption that what we get from government must be what the people want has a tinge of masochism about it in my mind, at least at this point where so much harm has been done and the corruption has gotten increasingly naked."

onething said...

Cherokee,

Not to be overly argumentative today, but I have not forgotten your response to me from perhaps the prior week to the last post, about fencing. You said you would accept 25 and even a 50% loss to feed the local rabbits.
I told that to my neighbor, who is one of two main growers at the farmer's market, and he simply said "I would never accept a 50% loss. although there is always some." Last year, he had a garden that was farther away from his house, and he wrapped it in a cheap fence and the deer breached the fence. They had a few days to themselves because he didn't check it every day, but the loss was total. The deer didn't used to be this numerous, which is odd because hunting season around here is bigger than Christmas. But the human population has dropped, and the older generations may have hunted all year round, I don't know. Perhaps before food stamps. My other neighbor told me that finally she said to her husband, unless you put up a fence, I'll stop gardening, because what's the point. (When they moved here in the 70s, there were not so many deer.)
Now, I care quite a lot for the critters, and feel pity even for insects. It is only with great reluctance that I kill wasps that get in the house, and will not spray ants but found that if you wipe them away they will eventually give up and stop coming inside. Last year we went to ridiculous lengths to save a robin's nest that had been foolishly built in a potted plant on the deck.

However, the wildlife around here is doing well, and do not need humans to artificially produce food for them. Furthermore, it is backbreaking labor to grow food, and why would someone accept such a loss? Is it because you don't really need the food and it's partly a hobby, albeit one you work hard at? That providing food for Stumpy and Fatso and having them around is fun? What if you had two children to feed and would actually eat less if you let too much of it go to the animals?
Perhaps it is different where you live, with wildlife being more rare. In general, though, any animal will multiply to the capacity of the environment to feed it, so if you spend your labor to feed wild animals, they will respond by increasing their numbers...a losing game, it seems to me.
Then, too, I am trying a method that someone here linked a video to, in which you do not till up the land constantly (as most of my acquaintances do) but instead leave a raised bed that gets the constant input of mulch to its top surface to improve soil and control weeds. If deer got in they would trample it up. Now, if a rabbit gets in under the fence once in a while, that would be okay.
Oh, yes, and you asked the question, who owns the land, me or the deer. Odd question - we both do! I have a right to live on this earth also. I look at property rights as mostly pertaining to other people. Animals are largely excused. Which means to me that while my presence might detract from their numbers a bit, it should not greatly wipe out their habitat and they should not be killed because I don't want them around. Nor do I have a right to damage/poison the land or ecosystem, whose "rights" go deeper than any particular society's agreements about land ownership, vis a vis humans. You mentioned fencing my farm. But I do no such thing. I fence a small bit of it; the vegetable garden. The deer roam freely over most of it, and I often use their guidance when walking through the forest as to the best path. They get some of the apples, too, and that's OK.


onething said...

Lunar Apprentice,

Your comment of 5/4 at 2:40 am was most interesting. Very good food for thought.

Shane said-
"I forgot to mention that as a matter of course, we were taught about the basic premise of limits to growth in grade school, that fossil fuels were a non renewable resource that would be depleted, and should be conserved for the future. "

Wow. I will have to ask my children, who were schooled in a very liberal district, if such a thing occurred in their education. If so, they never mentioned it. They did bug me to stop wasting water.

As an addendum to my prior comment, I'm thinking that perhaps I am feeling a bit defensive. I do not recall every having those conversations 30 years ago with my brother and ex, but I do recall over the years having some vague thoughts about the resource of oil, that came of their own accord whenever I might read about the millions of barrels of oil a day being used in just our country, I would think, How much oil is there, anyway? But that's as far as it went. And while I have not owned a TV for most of my life, nonetheless, I just don't seem to recall anyone being concerned with resource depletion, never took the Carter thing terribly seriously, nor did I ever hear about his solar panels before this blog. And the thing is, my personality is one which if I had had those concepts impressed on me in a CLEAR way, would have responded quickly, just as I have recently, as well as prior to Y2K and about earthquake preparedness when I lived in LA. I noted in Myriad's post about how bringing his wife's mind to a point of clarity on this issue took some time. So it might be that I heard something vague but it got lost in the shuffle.

onething said...

Regarding the idea of reacting with sorrow to being stuck on this rock, I am a bit surprised and am wondering if it might fall along theist/atheist lines. That is, are atheists more likely to feel bad about it? I believe that being stuck on this rock is a time limited sentence, that I will be released, and right now I am not in a hurry for that release.

I do care about the human story over time. I find the idea that we may not make progress, or perhaps may be prevented from making progress, very sad. By progress, I mean moral progress, mostly in the form of learning from our own history. And by prevented, I mean that I suspect that our earth is not the stable place we think it is, and that disasters come often enough that wipe out most of our memories. This is terribly sad and frustrating, as being able to carry on and communicate events to posterity is in the top two or three attributes that make us human and would have a lot to do with our being able to learn from the past.

But I also regard the human story as parallel to the larger reality, (which I will not call spiritual as there is only one reality) or embedded within the larger reality, and when one has a limited perspective things can seem very different than they actually are.

A simple example is the way that to all appearances the sun moves across the sky, and yet it is so easy to see the bigger reality with a good model of the solar system and an explanation.
It's odd to me that in the modern now, when we have so many such examples of the unseen and larger reality that materialistic worldviews are so entrenched with some groups. It ought to be rather the opposite.

P.M.Lawrence said...

Sorry for the delay replying.

At 9.06 a.m. on the 12th of May, 2014, Marcello wrote "Thing is how are the good ones [Khyber Pass copies of assault rifles etc.] actually made? Because if the following pics are any indication I would not be surprised if they had at least the most essential parts machined from semi-passable steel."

I think I mentioned earlier, that isn't a matter of necessity but of convenience and cost-effectiveness. That is, it makes far more sense for those artisans to go that route if they can get those parts, but we know perfectly well that they don't have to from the highly accurate copies they were making in the nineteenth century and their even earlier, entirely home grown (apart from the basic idea, that the Portuguese brought to India), djezails.

"Kalashnikov design still assumed steel and machine tools. Could they be duplicated with wrought iron and basic smith tools?"

Well, no, it didn't, any more than it assumed chromium lining, which was practical in the U.S.S.R. But, just as other countries made serviceable copies without chromium lining in regular factories (they just needed more maintenance and/or wore out faster), so also the AK47 could easily be made in small workshops, though less cost effectively - because what its design actually assumed was inferior workmanship, the only kind that the U.S.S.R. could provide cheaply and in quantity (which was why it displaced the earlier, higher precision assault rifles). Steel was available in the Khyber Pass anyway, since trade brought it in, but even wrought iron would have done.

"Still I would have a lot of reservations about their reliability under duress".

That's a fair comment, but it only means that they were no better than "proper" AK47s, which also needed field repairs when that happened. U.S. soldiers in Vietnam were puzzled for a long time by why the Vietcong often had several mysterious short tubes with them; it eventually turned out that the pistons could buckle after heavy use, and these were the spares (at least the Vietcong didn't need to carry old toothbrushes to clean out their rifles' actions before a fire fight in jungle conditions, like U.S. soldiers).

"If you have enough industrial tools to make ammunition probably some to make at least the most essential parts should be available as well, in which case there should be no difficulties".

But you don't need industrial tools to make ammunition either; again, it just helps. You can make adequate ammunition with brazed sheet, hammered wire, cast bullets, and such, and none of those need industrial tools.

There is a bottleneck, though - the chemicals needed. So if trade can bring those in, it can bring in ammunition too. But it's easier to divert ammunition by buying it from corrupt soldiers or policemen, which is trickier with their personal weapons as it's harder for them to hide the loss.

Robert Mathiesen said...

I remember it roughly as onething's sister does (in onething's first of three comments above).

donalfagan said...

For those who couldn't make the Age of Limits, I have written a few impressions. JMG was a big part of it, and I enjoyed meeting him. http://donalfagan.wordpress.com/2014/05/27/lords-of-light/

P.M.Lawrence said...

Retry.

Part 1 of 4

Sorry for the delay replying.

At 1.47 p.m. on the 12th of May, 2014, Glenn wrote of my "It wasn't a law requiring people to become infantry that was at work, it was a law requiring peaceful villagers to learn archery", "My eye is firmly on the ball. My conflation is quite deliberate. The sole purpose of the archery laws was to provide a body of trained men to call upon in time of war. No other purpose. The fact that not everyone who practiced at the butts was drafted didn't change that."

That's why I told you you'd taken your eye off the ball. Your rebuttal is 100% factually accurate, but entirely irrelevant.

Yes, that's why people were made to train like that. However, that doesn't flow through to giving them a motive for not training, because it wouldn't have saved them from having to go to war anyway if they were able bodied. The training was compulsory, and it was better to do it than to be punished. Going to war was compulsory, it was better to do it than to be punished, and at least valuable fighting men had more chance of loot and survival than grooms left to guard the baggage. Further, there was at least a chance that training wouldn't be followed by war, whereas not training was certain to be bad.

"The villagers, at any rate, had access to the magnitude of the hazards of war, though townsmen might not. In a village of 200 people you can know everyone by name, and probably half of them pretty well. If a dozen men march off to war one fine spring day and only two or three return the next winter, everyone knows. In a town, it's easier to remain ignorant of the size of the risk."

No, for several reasons:-

- Nobody "return[ed] the next winter" anyway, unless there were very special circumstances. They were there for the duration or until something happened, so they spent the winter in winter quarters.

- Even when somebody never came back at all, it could also be because he had grown rich directly or joined a mercenary company to get rich; a lot of those would never go back to peasant life ("how are you going to keep them down on the farm, once they have seen Par-e-e-e..."). The villagers would only have known the odds if they saw Johnny come marching home the other way; that was routine when the regiments of regular armies were partly disbanded in peace time in later centuries, because they were usually brought home first so they could be split up safely in barracks into those to keep and those to muster out, but this was a feudal host with a seasoning of mercenary contracts. (Trivia: if Napoleon's diplomatic efforts hadn't helped the U.S.A. to attack Britain, the soldiers brought back from North America would mostly have already been disbanded right after Napoleon was sent to Elba and wouldn't have been returning to Europe in time to be available for the Waterloo Campaign.)

P.M.Lawrence said...

Retry.

Part 2 of 4

Glenn wrote of my "English archers didn't make enough difference until the Hundred Years War; earlier, at Bannockburn, other tactics prevailed", "Not a good example to advance your cause. English archers were quite effective earlier at Falkirk. The failures at Stirling Bridge and Bannockburn, despite large numbers of archers available seem due to the commander's haste, or inadequate knowledge of their strengths and weakness and the right tactics to use them. Even after they got it right a few times, Patay showed what happens to unsupported archers. One could chalk this up to an uneven learning curve on the part of the English commanders. I would say it was a combination of luck, the crude state of military intelligence in the Middle Ages and the competence or lack thereof of individual commanders. Edward I for instance, pulled the fat out of the fire at Falkirk by over-riding his commanders and using the archers to soften up the schiltroons."

But all those things were just precisely what I meant, when I put that the tactics were not up to it until a little later, that others' tactics prevailed. Of course the proximate cause could be "the commander's haste, or inadequate knowledge of their strengths and weakness and the right tactics to use them. Even after they got it right a few times, Patay showed what happens to unsupported archers. One could chalk this up to an uneven learning curve on the part of the English commanders. I would say it was a combination of luck, the crude state of military intelligence in the Middle Ages and the competence or lack thereof of individual commanders." - that's the proximate cause of why the tactics weren't yet sorted out, and how that worked out at the time. Your objection is like saying "he didn't drown, he died because ingested water prevented adequate respiration".

P.M.Lawrence said...

Retry.

Part 3 of 4

At 7.07 p.m. on the 12th of May, 2014, Glenn wrote "If I follow you (I hope I have, I have learned much from you.), the English kings were impressed by the Welsh bowmen they encountered in their campaigns there, and Richard de Clare's (Strongbow) conquests in Ireland".

Yes to the Welsh bowmen , no to the conquests in Ireland bit. The relevance of those conquests wasn't that the English kings learned anything there - they were barely ever there, the closest being a period Prince John spent there - but rather that those conquests created a strategic need to secure the coast of South Wales, so there was even more campaigning in Wales over and above what came from having troubled border marches.

"From at least the time of the Danelaw, Archery was a living tradition in all forested areas of England, Wales and Scotland. It was enabled by a culture and economy that made it a usefull skill."

Up to a point, Lord Copper. And that point wasn't one where there were all that many archers; we can see that from the way it just wasn't around in comparable numbers in England until it was promoted, or in Scotland at all. (Yes, there is indeed an old tradition of archery in Scotland - dating back to when it was used as a sporting cover for Jacobite training, plotting and gathering, much as English Jacobites tried to use horse races.) Wales, though, was different. It was an area into which holdouts had been driven, and only had a very few areas suitable for settled agriculture - at any rate, without development and a continuing threat of raids. The upper Severn valley could be controlled by the Welsh from the mountains around, as could the northern parts of several valleys in the south, the coast in the west was somewhat safe from the English (who could still get there by sea and from their holdings in "little England beyond Wales", where the port for Ireland was), and Anglesey provided a granary for the Princes of Wales in the north. Apart from that, though, the only available lifestyle was semi-pastoral, dog and stick farming, moving around a lot - and supplemented by hunting, which couldn't be controlled by the government as in England, if the Princes even wanted to.

So you are perfectly correct where the conditions obtained; but that means, for Wales.

P.M.Lawrence said...

Retry.

Part 4 of 4

"Those peasants who could, chose the towns..."

No! They didn't jump, they were pushed. We know that because we have the historical record of the Enclosures of the Commons that started the pushing, which further tells us that they mostly didn't leave until that happened, in the Tudor period, much later than the time we are looking at.

What mostly happened after the Black Death etc. was, an increase in the cash economy, with feudal obligations changing into cash ones, people leaving plots of land for rural cash activities like charcoal burning, and so on. But it was slow, and mostly started at the higher levels first. Its effect was that even those who stayed were less locked down.

It wasn't the leaving the land that was the big change for supporting archery, it was that the constraints were looser because they could leave the land and/or move to other land. By Elizabethan times, with its economic repairs, things were more like your pull scenario - but the change was pretty much accomplished by then.

"The thumb release tends to deflect the string the opposite way from the Mediterranean release, so I was thinking of releasing the arrow off the right side of the bow rather than the left".

I've somewhere seen a description of a design feature of properly made arrows, no doubt discovered empirically as something that worked rather than as something that was understood. The natural force after release is towards the rest of the bow, and a rigid stick would bounce off it. However, the shaft has just the right flexibility in relation to the mass of the head, so first the middle of the shaft buckles outward and begins to clear the bow - and then, as the fletching approaches the bow, the shaft flexes the other way and keeps that clear of the bow too, even though the arrow's centre of gravity moves in a straight line.

So I suspect the release deflection matters less than how well the arrow behaves dynamically.

Marcello said...


"That is, it makes far more sense for those artisans to go that route if they can get those parts, but we know perfectly well that they don't have to from the highly accurate copies they were making in the nineteenth century and their even earlier, entirely home grown (apart from the basic idea, that the Portuguese brought to India), djezails."

Frankly what they could or could not do for much of the 19th century is not relevant when talking about 1940's design. A lot of weapons in the 1800-1900 range would still be built with wrought iron and so even as original. That they could make, say, a decent Snider copy does not mean that an AK could be made in the same way and be as good.

"so also the AK47 could easily be made in small workshops, though less cost effectively - because what its design actually assumed was inferior workmanship"

I never said it required super duper tech, high end workmanship or huge factories but that machine tools and steel were taken for granted in the design, because that was the available production technology and materials. And a certain thickness of steel has not the same properties the same thickness of wrought iron, that goes without saying.
Whether the barrel is chromium lined or the stock is cut by hand is secondary to having an action that won't kill you when you look at it funny; that is the point.
In short that you could make a safe and reliable AK with entirely pre-industrial tech, that is wrought iron, a charcoal forge and the other basic tools is what I doubt.

"(which was why it displaced the earlier, higher precision assault rifles)"

Which ones would those be exactly?
The soviets only issued semi-autos in any meaningful quantity before the AK. The Avtomat was produced in ludicrous low numbers and used a foreign cartridge. Worldwide the AK mostly displaced bolt action weapons, if it displaced anything at all.

"You can make adequate ammunition with brazed sheet, hammered wire, cast bullets, and such, and none of those need industrial tools."

How much time and effort to make one cartridge?

MawKernewek said...

Those who have been discussing possible sites of lost human settlements, might be interested to download the elevation and bathymetry dataset at http://www.shadedrelief.com/cleantopo2.

Having a look at it in QGIS you can see which areas could have been dry land at different times.

The Kurt Lambeck papers can be interesting reads - link I spent a while looking at estimates of sea level changes at various times, to see what basis the legends of Lyonesse and Cantre'r Gwaelod may have had.

In the tropical zones you wouldn't have the added complication of post-glacial rebound. Indeed, the Sahul Time website from Monash University has a nice visualisation of this.

Of course, even after the temperatures had reached their Holocene levels in Europe, there was still a fair amount of the Laurentide ice sheet still to melt

dltrammel said...

Shane Wilson said:

Does anyone know when the GW forum is moving to the new site? Been kinda waiting for it to move to post, as Cathy said it had been dead due to spambots.

The Green Wizard Forum isn't dead, its actually getting alot of traffic right now. Please feel free to stop by and check out the many new topics.

Its just that we have turned off automatic registration. That means you have to go thru one more simple step to be able to post (You can read without registering). Go ahead and register then send me a email at dtrammel at green wizards dot info with your username. I'll approve the registration and you can post.

Moving the forum to the newer server is on the "to-do" list but has hit a bit of a wall, so I don't know how soon it will be moved.

Still the forum is up and working. Please join us.

There are actually two Green Wizard sites up now, the forum and our newer gateway site Green Wizards dot Info.

The best way I have to describe them is the Info site is like a big book store, right now with alot of empty shelves. We hope to fill those shelves with tutorials and articles of all the skills you will need in the Long Descent.

The forum is kind of like the coffee shop in that bookstore, where you can go hang out and chat.

The gateway site is open to anyone to post a comment, the forum you do need to register.

BTW we are having a free JMG book giveaway this month, while John is on vacation. You can read about it here "WIN A FREE JOHN MICHAEL GREER BOOK".

All you need to do is post a comment to any of the blog posts on the gateway site and you are entered.

If you'd like a second chance to win, then you need to post to this thread on the forum, ""My Tips For Living Frugally" - The Win A JMG Book, Part 2".

That's a great thread to just read. We've had over thirty people give suggestions and tips on how to save money and live below your means.

BUT You only have until the 16th, when JMG returns to posting here on the ADR to get yourself entered into the giveaway. We'll announce the winners then.

---------

On a different note, we have begun the first in our themed months on the Green Wizard site, "“First Steps – Getting a Handle on Your Personal Finances the Green Wizard Way”".

Yes we're going to talk about you and your money as a way to start along the Green Wizard way.

June will be I hope a focus with tutorials and guest blog posts and will help everyone to get a better handle on their own finances as we begin to change our lifestyles for the coming Long Descent.

dltrammel said...

Cherokee Organics said:

"Look dude, sorry to burst your bubble, but you've scored a history lesson...

You are correct in the short term and also incorrect in the long term."


I think you misunderstood my point. I understand why the Public turned away from the lessons' of that time, and still think they screwed up. I do wish we had been adults then and done the right thing. I am in now way saying they were right to act as children.

The sad thing is that people who seem to want to be in government and make rules seem to be the exactly wrong people to be giving power to. Maybe that should be a requirement of getting elected. If you want the job, you are disqualified from running.

I'm reminded of this old commercial, "What If Firefighters Ran The World?"

If only governments ran like that, lol.

Marcello said...

Anyway it has been interesting to note that the news of the EIA dropping the nuke on the Monterey shale has been barely acknowledged outside the circle of usual suspects. News of the oil majors getting out of dodge is relegated to the odd article of financial magazine.
I would not be surprised in the least if a cascade failure of gas/oil companies operating in the shale plays could be written off as "market rationalization" while everyone keep pushing "Energy independence by 2020" meme.

donalfagan said...

I'm curious to read JMG's take on Age of Limits 2014, but I had a few thoughts about what was presented, and what has been blogged since: http://donalfagan.wordpress.com/2014/06/04/after-what-seemed-like-an-age/

John Michael Greer said...

Greetings all,

Several people have recently sent me not-for-posting comments asking various questions, which is fine, but neglected to include their email addresses in the comment, which isn't. Blogger doesn't tell me your email address; if you don't give it to me, I have no way to respond to you. If you haven't heard from me in response to a recent question, that may be why. I now return myself to my irregularly scheduled vacation...

Candace said...

For interim reading, thought this was an interesting interview.
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/06/04-4
Interview with convicted climate activist.

Also appreciated the "Age of Limits" re-caps.

Candace

Nastarana said...

Dear Redneck Girl, Zosima, SL Claire, onething and others who are interested in what happened in the USA in the 1980s, some more random thoughts. I also was there.

It is no exaggeration to say that American's choice to turn against conservation and the habit of self reliance was a great tragedy. At that time, people who had grown up knowing how to do for themselves where still alive and able to pass on their skills and knowledge. Yes, you can still learn much from books and manuals, but much knowledge that was particular to specific climates and locations has been lost.

To add to what was said earlier, I remember, beginning in the early 1980s, a strong media assault on any kind of doing for oneself. which was coming from both right and left. RW local notables, the for runners of the Tea Partiers of today, had always hated the hippy and back to the land movements because those folks didn't spend. No hair done at a salon every week, no purchases at their wives' fancy boutiques, and a commune might maintain one aged vehicle, not a separate used car for every member. Retail grocers don't make a whole lot of profit off monthly purchases of bags of rice and beans.

Up until about the middle 80s, women could still wear homemade garments (well made and not violating the dress code) to work. At the present time, if you try, you are likely to be fired from white collar jobs for lack of professionalism, and subjected to some pretty extreme harassment at blue collar workplaces. Up until about the late 90s, home baked treats were still welcome in public schools, now they are not allowed in most schools and illegal in some places. We all know the dim view Home Owners Associations and city and county code enforcers take of home gardens (don't even mention keeping small livestock).

I raised two girls mostly be myself, without public assistance, which I declined to accept, mainly because I simply did not respect the social workers I met, by practicing some pretty extreme conservation. I was bucking public opinion all the way and if I were not a solitary, reading kind of person, I doubt I would have been at all successful, and instead of being employed good citizens, which both my girls now are, they would likely have become casualties of "the street" has did so many other teens in the 90s and00s.

I don't mean to imply that there was some kind of closed doors evil conspiracy to turn Americans from productive people to idiot couch potatoes, but it is true that mass advertising and mass media exist, not only to sell products, but also to establish and portray the limits of what is to be considered socially acceptable.

AlanfromBigEasy said...

An interesting article about an ancient, and useful, device - a solar ignitor.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/06/06/6000-year-old-ignitor-worlds-oldest-solar-device-author/

Odd that modern equivalents are little known or used.

Bret said...

Apropos of nothing, but just finished Star's Reach a week or so ago, and what a fabulous tale it was. I can barely contain my enthusiasm -- thank you! It's a twisty thought, but I do believe you might just go down as the Mark Twain of the twenty-first century. It will definitely be hard to think about picking anything else up for a while after such an enjoyable read. Your fiction hums along supremely smoothly -- bravo!

But the kicker was to pick up today's NY TImes and see on the front page a reference to the "ruins of Detroit". Life imitates art!

Dagnarus said...

@Nastarana

I thought I'd add to your point by linking to this blog-post which argues that Germans should stop mowing there own lawns which is of course a blight on the economy.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/01/germans-stop-mowing-lawn.html

Gwaiharad said...

> Well, sure enough, the WSJ felt compelled to give yet another Polyanna a whole lot of column space to worship at the altar of innovation.

> http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304279904579517862612287156?mg=reno64-wsj

> Now that I've been told "The World's Resources Aren't Running Out", can you imagine how much better I'll sleep tonight?

Here's a more concise version of essentially the same argument:

http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2014/04/25/5-reasons-the-world-is-not-running-out-of-resources/

Summary and (my own, possibly flawed) analysis:

Reason #1 - Food production per acre is increasing!
Yes, because we're pouring fertilizers and energy from fossil fuels into food production. (More on fossil fuels later).

Reason #2 - We're not using as much water as we thought we would be in the 60's and 70's!
Maybe so. Nevertheless, we're running short. Many rivers in arid regions no longer reach the sea, pumped dry for irrigation. Aquifer levels are falling worldwide. Solar-powered desalination would help things, if it could be made to work on a large enough scale. We'll have to wait and see.

Reason #3 - We'll get plenty of oil from fracking!
Well... yes. For a while. Fracking does indeed extract oil that can't be gotten any other way. However, it has a much lower EROEI (energy return on energy investment) than "conventional" oil, partly because the fracking process takes considerable energy and partly because fracking wells tend to go dry quickly, meaning you have to go drill another one in a couple of years. It'll pad the downslope of the Hubbert curve, is all.

Reason #4 - There's still lots of minerals, even if they aren't in conventional ores/deposits. We can just re-concentrate them!
...which takes energy. For which, see reason #3 concerning fossil fuels. Wind and solar electricity are yielding a reasonable amount of energy in some places... but not enough to replace fossil fuels, not for this kind of thing.

Reason #5: People that have money don't damage ecosystems, because they use electricity/fossil fuels instead of burning wood and hunting meat.
See #3 again. We have fossil fuels now, and will have them for a while at an ever-increasing cost, but ultimately it's a limited supply. Wind, solar, tide, geothermal, etc., however, could probably be of considerable help here, along with suitable agricultural techniques.


Also, another argument that he makes (in the original article) is somewhat flawed. He claims that we can just keep reducing the amount of materials that items use, citing things like cars now using much less steel than in previous decades, and gold plating in modern computer connections being 1/100th the thickness it was in early computers. But there has to be a limit to the amount of "trimming-down" that can be done. And using less or cheaper material when making an item tends to reduce that item's cost, which means more people can afford it, so more of it is produced, which means ultimately that more of the raw materials get used. You can confirm this by looking at production figures for pretty much any raw material you can think of. This isn't at all my field (I'm in college working towards a bachelor's in music), but it's interesting and I might write a full-out report on it sometime.

Now, I think this guy's argument is not totally without its merit. Sometimes, human activity does actually contribute to the natural environment, making it more productive than it would otherwise have been, and all the local species benefit. And it's true that people have come up with amazing inventions in the past. So it's possible that some space-bat solution will actually bear fruit (nuclear fusion, zero-point energy, etc.), but it's also foolish to base your worldview and future plans around some invention that has yet to materialize.

Nastarana said...

Dagnarus, I read the article to which you referred.

OMG! Sheesh! From bought and paid for American bloggers and so-called reporters I expect this kind of idiocy. I had thought better of well educated Germans.

It is hard to not overreact to this kind of egregious stupidity, but did I actually read that raising one's own children is now to be defined as "home production"? !!!

The article does lay out, in much more bare terms than I usually see, the leftist hostility to home production.

In response, I assert that private frugality is a public virtue for many reasons.

a. People with money saved are less apt to become desperate and turn to crime and violence when disaster strikes.

b. Practice of thrift increases your personal security and that of your family--if the car won't start, you have cash to get it repaired immediately--with salutary results for your and their mental health and stability. If a hurricane approaches, you can afford to remove to a nice motel instead of crowded shelter.

d. In contrast, the habit of foolish spending--not the occasional indulgence, but daily leakage--has a visibly deleterious effect on a person's health and character.

c. Thrift is also good for your community, because you can afford to support and patronize local producers--good people doing good work. If I cook at home 362 days a year, I can take my daughters out to a high end restaurant where the staff are trained and well paid and the food is locally sourced.

d. Thrift is also good for your nation, because accumulated savings can be used to fund useful production.

With respect to child care, I suggest that your children will benefit far more from a good, well-run day care facility than from having some sullen, semi-educated nanny in your home. Not to mention, that when there is a rash of home invasion robberies, it is often found that information was passed to gangs by domestic workers within the affected homes.

Zosima said...

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/carter-white-house-solar-panel-array/
This confirms some of what JMG was saying about the change in attitude regarding energy in the 1980’s. There was a dramatic difference in attitude towards renewables between the Carter and the Reagan administrations. Carter wanted the government to subsidize renewables, Reagan did not. But idea that large amounts of fossil fuel would have been saved for future generations had Carter won and continued those subsides is doubtful. One telling sign is Japan, there’s no industrial country more desperate for energy than Japan. Japan imports *all* of her oil, yet Japan also wasn’t able to develop renewables to any significant extent in the eighties and nineties. The obvious reason for this is the one I mentioned before - cheap oil. Since Japan is far more dependent on imported energy than the US, we should have seen a movement towards sustainability begin there before any place else, but we didn’t. Why not? The choice to move towards sustainability didn’t happen anywhere in the 1980’s or 1990’s, even in countries where it made more sense. So does it really make any sense to single out Americans for not making the choice?

Janet D said...

Nastarana said "I don't mean to imply ... it is true that mass advertising and mass media exist, not only to sell products, but also to establish and portray the limits of what is to be considered socially acceptable."

Yup. I often say that there is a reason that the cost of a Super Bowl commercial is $4 million per 30-second commercial - that's $133,000 a second, BTW - and that # doesn't include the millions it costs to create/produce the actual ad. The reason is....advertising works. It works (not always, but amazingly well). It works for companies, and it works for politicians.

I believe few people are conscious enough to avoid being influenced by advertising (if, like me, you don't watch TV, it helps tremendously). Image advertising is among the most potent, and the most frequent. At age 48, I do remember the change-over from the 70s to the 80s...and the 80s seemed to give rise to more image-based lifestyles.

And one more thing, Nastarana - I also remember when it was not uncommon for a woman to sew (and to save money doing so....) And then I think of my cousin who lives in Seattle who recently went to a preschool birthday party and came home, called me, and said "Every woman there was dressed in at least $1,000 worth of clothes." (And she & her husband travel very much in "middle-class" circles.)

MawKernewek said...

Actually, the argement of the blog mentioned fails even on its own terms; that is, assuming GDP in US dollars is an accurate and sane way to measure economic success.

Notice that figures are given both for GDP per capita and hours worked. Germany is ahead for GDP / number of hours worked according to it.

Nastarana said...

JanetD, With regard to "$1000 worth of clothes...", that I find truly frightening. These grasping, amoral folks are not going to give up their priviledges easily or willingly.

Unknown said...

(Deborah Bender)

Recently we were discussing the possibility of inexpensive turnkey off grid DC solar power to power a few small appliances.

There's currently an Indiegogo campaign to produce one of those appliances with the solar power built in. It's a cooler-sized refrigerator/freezer/warmer. The device has detachable solar panels in the lid and a lithium ion battery for power storage. It's equipped with DC and AC power cords and two USB charger ports.

It has a collapsible aluminum body; the site has photos of them sitting on luggage trundlers. Not lightweight; 20 and 40 pounds.

They claim 80 quart capacity for the larger size device and 30 quart for the smaller. I checked the outside measurements and can't figure out how they are getting such a high volume, but if it works as advertised, even a smaller capacity would be useful.

I took a chance and contributed in hopes of getting a working model at a discount. When not camping, I might leave it outside to store whole wheat flour, unfiltered vegetable oils and other items that spoil eventually if not refrigerated. I don't have room for a second fridge or freezer at home. If grid power is interrupted, take that stuff out and make ice instead.

The site is

https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/anywhere-fridge-portable-collapsible-solar-powered-fridge-freezer-warmer--2/x/4975966

Andrew H said...

#Deborah Bender,

That refrigerator is more or less equivalent to a standard camping refrigerator with inbuilt solar panels. The idea of a fold up unit is neat but how often would you use that. Plus I am a bit wary of their claims particularly with regard to the solar panel bit.

The dimensions given work out to an outside volume of about 77 quarts. With reasonably insulation thickness of 1 inch, that corresponds to an internal volume of about 50 quarts.

However I would be more worried about relying on solar power. The images of the solar panels suggest an area of about 300 square inches which could give a maximum of around 35 watts with high efficiency solar cells and with the Sun directly overhead. Unless you keep adjusting the tilt of the box for best angle you are only likely to make around 175 watt hours per average day at the best. (Maybe a little more in summer). Tilting the box may give you 50% more. Plus with the solar panels built into the lid, the box has to be out in the direct sunshine where it will get hot require even better insultation. Dark blue is not the best colour either. And forget about leaving it in the shade in your vehicle or tent - no power.

A commercial camping refrigerator of about that volume would typically use around 300 watt hours per day to keep the contents around 36 F or 4 C when kept in the shade. Of course you can leave this new version plugged in to a power supply (240 or 12 V) but that rather negates the solar power idea.

There are much cheaper options for keeping some picnic stuff cool, and I really doubt its ability to serve a serious long term use away from a power supply. You would be better off getting a good quality standard camping refrigerator to keep in the shade with a separate reasonably sized solar panel and battery to put out in the Sun. It is likely to last longer and the bugs should be ironed out of it.

I don't see it as a long term Green solution.

Unknown said...

(Deborah Bender)

"You would be better off getting a good quality standard camping refrigerator to keep in the shade with a separate reasonably sized solar panel and battery to put out in the Sun."

The description says that the panels are detachable and suggests that one could leave the chest in the trunk of a car and place the panels in a car window, presumably connected to the battery.

So perhaps it amounts to the same thing, with a price premium for getting everything as a set. You are right about the color of the chest; it's not what I would have chosen.

Greg Belvedere said...

I searched youtube yesterday and found the video of John Michael Greer speaking at the Economics, Energy and Environment conference at The School of Economic Science in London. Enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi9Ve1nQ6H4

AlanfromBigEasy said...

Apropos of "Twilght's Last Gleaming", major natural gas discoveries offshore Tanzania.

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/london/statoil-exxonmobil-up-tanzania-block-resources-26813951

BTW, 2013 was a bust for exploration. One barrel found for three burned. 2014 may be worse. Only significant oil discovery so far is in 7,000' (2,300 m) of water off the Ivory Coast. I wrote an essay on this, and I am writing another about the Bakken running out of steam.

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